The loudest claims that AI will eliminate nearly all human work tend to come from a narrow group: people who build AI models and write software, and the people who cover them for a living.
This should not be surprising. Every new technology is first understood by the people closest to it.
The problem is that many of the people making sweeping forecasts about the future of work have spent their careers doing one particular kind of work—the exact kind of work that AI got good at first.
I have led companies most of my adult life. I have not written production software in decades. So I read these forecasts the way I read any confident prediction from a specialist: I respect the expertise, but I question the extrapolation.
Here is the extrapolation in question:
Great programmers are rare. They have one of the most cognitively demanding jobs in the economy.
…